Assumption Map
The riskiest assumptions, named
- PhaseSelect
- Group3 to 12 people
- Time40 minutes
- SettingRoom or remote
- ExecutivesYes
What it is
An assumption map lists the assumptions behind an idea and places each on a grid of how risky it is and how much evidence exists. Assumptions that are high risk with little evidence are tested first.
When to use it
Before prototyping, to decide what the prototype must test.
When to skip it
Before an idea has been chosen.
How to run it
- 10 minList the conditions from What Would Have to Be True as assumptions.
- 10 minPlace each on the map: how much evidence, and how much risk if wrong.
- 10 minPick the top three to test first.
- 10 minTurn each into a question a prototype can answer.
About 40 minutes of method time. Add ten to fifteen minutes to open and close the session.
What to watch for
Every assumption landing in the top corner. Leaving out assumptions about people and trust.
The AI lens
Make sure there is an assumption on data, one on whether people will check the output, and one on who is accountable.
What you leave with
Three riskiest assumptions, each with a way to test it.
An example
For an AI tool that summarises case files: people will read the summary (medium risk), the data is complete (high risk, no evidence), the summary is accurate enough (high risk, some evidence). The team tests the data question first.
How it compares
What Would Have to Be True lists conditions. The Assumption Map prioritises them.
Related methods
Questions
What is Assumption Map?
An assumption map lists the assumptions behind an idea and places each on a grid of how risky it is and how much evidence exists. Assumptions that are high risk with little evidence are tested first.
When should I use Assumption Map?
Before prototyping, to decide what the prototype must test.
How long does Assumption Map take and how many people do I need?
Assumption Map takes about 40 minutes and suits 3 to 12 people, plus a facilitator. Add ten to fifteen minutes to open and close the session.
How is Assumption Map different from other methods?
What Would Have to Be True lists conditions. The Assumption Map prioritises them.
Can I run Assumption Map remotely or with executives?
Yes. Assumption Map works in the room or remotely. Remotely, put the canvas on a shared board in advance and write silently in the board, not in chat. Executives: Yes, works with executives present.